The entire civilization is disrupted following the Coronavirus Outbreak. Coronavirus has made death, lockdown, and quarantines, the new norms in daily life. Researchers all around the world are battling to get a cure for the virus. The Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy has published a report to gauge the seriousness of the situation. IndiaSIM model shows a true insight.
According to the report, India can see a sudden spike in the number of COVID-19 infections. The number of Coronavirus infections in India will be around 20 crores by mid-May. If Indians do not follow the quarantine instructions, the number might rise further. Because if preventive measures and isolation are not followed, the virus will spread faster.
The IndiaSIM Model of Coronavirus Outbreak
India is currently under lockdown till April 14. CDDEP has introduced a new COVID-19 model curve for India. The IndiaSIM model predicts the outbreak to reach 30 crores by July if the infection is allowed to spread. But it is a relief to see that most of the cases will be mild.
If social distancing is not followed, novel coronavirus cases are expected to rise exponentially in India. However, projections can change daily.https://t.co/uOksBmXOjh
— CDDEP (@CDDEP) March 26, 2020
The model has 3 stages, high, medium, and low. High shows the recent trend with all lockdowns active but no social distancing from people. Medium shows a decreased infectious curve with temperature and virulence remaining constant. Low shows the optimum curve with decreased virulence.
When will COVID-19 end in India?
There is a piece of good news though. The report also predicts a fall in reported cases, but only if social distancing follows. The study shows social distancing to help reduce peak by 75%. National containment is not a long-period viable option for India. But local area wise lockdown is a good alternative.
According to the report, India will get rid of the virus by July. You only need to support us by staying your home.