The Coronavirus is slowly spreading throughout all parts of the world. The virus, COVID-19, has a comparatively low infectious rate in India as compared to other countries. But, researchers say the story can be completely false. Because India is a country with a population as big as 1.5 billion people.
The researchers projected a simulation according to which authorities will decide how to relax lockdown. Within the first 7 days of lockdown starting from March 21, 2020, the Coronavirus cases across the country is officially 2,395. But, the reality can be very much different from this. Because of the lack of testing capabilities, many have gone unnoticed. The research shows around 16,800 possible infections within those 7 days.
What is the efficiency of the COVID-19 India model?
Scientists use daily mortality rates to predict a model for countries around the world. One of these models predicts the COVID-19 spreading function of India. According to this simulation, our country has way more coronavirus cases than is being reported.
Researchers from the Imperial College of London say that the virus spread multiplies silently in places with high population density. In the 7 days since the start of lockdown on March 22, India has an estimated 16,800–23,600 true Coronavirus infections as opposed to the 2,395 reported by the Indian government.
According to these researchers, the projections are based on the death rate and predicted that fatalities in the week ending on April 11 would likely be around 119 and 567. By April 11, 2020, the actual number of deaths reported was 288. This proves the efficiency of the research survey.
India needs to start having frequent testing for Coronavirus if they are to stop the virality of the disease. Once the lockdown is open the spreading will increase like a bomb.
Suryapratim Ray is an engineer, author, robotics hobbyist, and an active Quoran. Being a technical blogger, he covers the good, bad, and ugly of science on a regular basis at Sciencenews18. In addition to his passion for writing, he’s equally keen on learning classical music.