The Coronavirus pandemic is showing no mercy at the moment. No cure or vaccine is under the radar for now. Scientists are still carrying on to find something to help defeat the beast. But, for now, researchers are busy simulating situations. A group of scientists from Harvard published a controversial paper. It says that pulling off a few lockdowns will not curb the spread of the virus.
Yes, surely the spread slows due to the lockdown, but once the lockdown comes off it will increase exponentially. So, the best method is to have a regular interval lockdown at least till the year 2022. This will help the healthcare facility to regroup and start off with a plan. It helps keep the pressure down the government for quite some time.
Harvard researchers are projecting that we may have to practice social distancing until 2022.
There is absolutely no reason we should not institute national vote by mail right now.
This is not a blip in the radar. It’s our new normal. Let’s be prepared. No debate. Vote by mail.
— Rep. Joe Kennedy III (@RepJoeKennedy) April 15, 2020
Without a vaccine in hand, what does the simulation show?
The simulation model takes into account all the other coronaviruses‘ immunity and seasonal variations in the United States. It is seen that a single lockdown to maintain social distancing is not enough. But it will only overtake the critical healthcare capacity.
As of now, there is no known vaccine. So, life cannot go back to normal just like that after the lockdown is over. There are consequences. Citing the examples of Singapore and South Korea, Harvard researchers suggest that the effect of social distancing helps regain the health infrastructure of the country.
Without a vaccine in hand, if cases begin to rise, there is a chance of gaining ‘herd immunity‘. But social distancing seems to be the best policy. Currently, the epicenter has shifted from one extreme of the planet to the other. The World Health Organization reports 2 million infections worldwide.
Suryapratim Ray is an engineer, author, robotics hobbyist, and an active Quoran. Being a technical blogger, he covers the good, bad, and ugly of science on a regular basis at Sciencenews18. In addition to his passion for writing, he’s equally keen on learning classical music.